| Volume: 13 - Número: 2 - Data: abril / junho / 1978 |
| Título: Um Modelo Probabilístico para Estimar a Demanda de Atividades de Lazer |
| Autor: Gilberto José Weinberger Teixeira |
| Email: |
| Tema: Outros / Não Especificado |
| Tipo: Artigo |
 Artigo na Íntegra |
|
Resumo
|
| Tentativa de formular um modelo probabilístico para estimar e projetar o uso de locais turísticos e de lazer. O estudo tentou: a) desenvolver um modelo conceitual que permite estimar o uso para turismo de um determinado local; b) aplicar o modelo usando dados empíricos com o objetivo de comparar o uso real e as taxas de visitas previstas para "camping" no Estado de S.Paulo; c) ilustrar a aplicação da análise probabilística no desenvolvimento de estimativas de demanda para "camping".
|
| Palavras-chave: |
|
|
| Title: |
| Author: Gilberto José Weinberger Teixeira |
| Email: |
| Theme: |
| Type: Artigo |
| Full Text |
All available evidence indicates that the demand for tourism and recreation is this country is increasing and will continue to increasing much more in the coming years.
As leisure use of natural resources confines to increase, its importance becomes more to decision makers responsible for public and private allocation. Estimates of consumer demand and associated resource values are basic to this decision process.
This study attempts to formulate a probabilistic model to be used in estimating and projecting consumer use of leisure and tourist facilities. Specifically, the objectives were: (1) to develop a conceptual model which permits estimates of probable tourist use of a given facility or site; (2) To apply the conceptual model to empirical data for the purpose of comparing actual and model predicted visitation rates for camping in the State of São Paulo; (c) To illustrate the application of the probabilistic analysis in the development of statistical demand estimates for camping.
The model development is intendend for general problems of estimating many types of tourist resource use.
Camping is used in the analysis to explore the applicability and operation of the model.
|
| Keywords: |
|
Resumen
|
| Título: |
| Não possui resumo em espanhol
|
| Palabras clave: |
| |
|
|